Hey, you! Listen up! I’m talking to you, so sit down and pat attention. You’re about to read the best investment advice you’ve ever read. You’ve heard it before, probably more than once, but like thousands of other lemmings, you’ve disregarded it. “It’s beneath consideration,” you’ve said to yourself. “It’s trivial.” The problem is, you’ve never thought about it in depth, you’ve never understood the implications, and you’ve never chosen the logical path toward the fulfillment of the concept. Here they are, the five most important word you’ll read this year – provided you care about making and preserving money: Buy low, and sell high. Now wipe that smug expression off your face. I knew you’d be familiar with it. It’s a quotation that’s been attributed over the years to more people than you have in your extended family. It’s the number one answer, usually facetious, to the question, “Want to know how to make money in the stock market? Buy low, and sell high.” But if it’s so trivial and so obvious, then why have you always jumped onto the bandwagon near the top of the hill? Why have you failed to act on a buying opportunity when logic dictated action? Okay, you may be among the two percent who invest with their heads and not their emotions. If you’re that smart, of that complacent, you need to read no further. However, the overwhelming odds say you’re just like the rest of us. You remember your winners with Crystal Clarity, and you bury your losers in your secret heart. Your losers outnumber your winner, but you don’t discuss the investments that have gone awry even with close friends. They haunt you, and you’re fallible; for that very reason, your timing is atrocious. When you see plus signs on rare coin pricing sheets, you feel an almost irresistible urge to participate in the “hot” market. You don’t want to be left behind, to feel that you’ve missed an opportunity for profit. Conversely, when you see minus signs, or lack of activity, you won’t go near the rare coin market. After all, no one else is buying, so why should you? You need the reassurance and reinforcement of collective action, and you can’t overcome your basic fear of acting alone, contrary to the conventional wisdom of the moment. Everyone craves inside information. I’ll give you some – it won’t cost you a dime, and it won’t get you into trouble – Simply put, the herd instinct is hazardous to your investment dollar, let me illustrate. A few weeks ago I heard a conversation between a coin dealer and a client. It went like this: Client: I’m interested in buying some commemorative half dollars for investment. Coin Dealer: I think that’s a good idea at current price levels. For instance, you can buy MS-65 Texas types coins now for… Client: Oh! They’re down, aren’t they? I think I’d rather wait until I see the market moving up. Coin Dealer: In other words, you’d like to pay more money for the same coin later on? Client: Yeah, I guess so. I snickered when I heard that, and you may be laughing, too. But don’t laugh too hard those overwhelming odds again say you’ve been guilty of the same kind of misguided thought. Fear of paying too much when prices are too darn cheap has paralyzed you into inactivity. And fear of “missing the boat” has compelled you to enter a market when you should have been on the sidelines. Let’s face it. You’ll never-get rich by doing what everyone else is doing when everyone else is doing it. The mavericks make the serious money not the sheep. Those mavericks make their money by figuring out what you’re going to do – and doing the opposite, I have a good friend who is filthy rich. He’s 85 years old, and he has a million dollars for every years of his life. He’s also a gourmet, and he routinely dines in the finest, most expensive restaurants. He can afford to – he earns $4,500 interest per day on his tax-free bonds. Once a week, however, without fail, he has a sandwich and a coffee at a local truck stop. He sits by himself and listens to the conversations – sometimes for hours. “When I hear people at the truck stop talking about the Dow Jones average, I’m out of the market. Period,” he explains. (In August of 1987 he abandoned his position in stocks and, bought “puts” on the exchanges). I’m not suggesting that there’s anything inherently wrong with truck drivers playing the stock market. But when a 18-wheeler with a hot load make an unscheduled stop while the drive calls his broker, things are out of whack. You can bet, by that point, the smart money already has started to sell. I’ve waited until the last possible minute to submit this article. Mike Sherman and Chuck Miller have been pounding on my desk for a week now. This one-week delay, however has given me a much clearer picture of the current state of the rare coin market. The Bull which was rampaging though you last issue of LEGACY has been cowed. In the wake of some rather severe cash-flow problems in the industry, rare coin prices have retreated and have begun to stabilize, it appears that the market is within 10 to 15 percent of a bottom, if not there already. “Buy low” mean “buy low,” damn it. But I haven’t gotten a call from you, and the odds say I probably won’t. No, you’ll probably sit this slow dance out, and three months, or six months from now – when you hear how much the -, rare coin market has been moving – you’ll call around until you find someone who’ll tell you what you’re waiting to hear. Three months, or six months after that you’ll be waiting for the next market move to bail you out. It won’t happen to you, you say? Well, I’m no prophet, but I do know the percentages. And I’m betting against you.
Reid Spencer is a 1974 graduate of Yale University, where he studied drama and economics. Subsequently he played guitar and tenor saxophone for a touring jazz band, was a sports writer for Knight Ridder Newspaper Editors. And active coin collector for more than thirty years, Mr. Spencer currently is employed by Heritage Rare Coin Galleries as Director of Numismatic sales. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily tone those of the publisher. (All rights reserved)

In this issue of the INSIDE VIEW we are going to examine the rare gold market, and then I will present my picks for the ten best buys in the rare gold market. But first we’ll take a look at some of the reasons why rare fold coins should be an integral part of your rare coin portfolio.

Gold coins were issued for circulation by the United States Mint between 1795 and 1933. In 1933, at the depth of the Depression, Franklin Roosevelt recalled all gold coins and gold certificates and made it illegal for U.S. citizens to own gold bullion, effectively taking the U.S. off the gold standard. In 1976 gold bullion ownership by U.S. citizens was once again legalized. While the U.S. is now minting the gold Eagle “coin,” it does not issue gold coins for general circulation. U.S. gold coins have always been one of the cornerstones of the United States numismatic market. In fact, many of the famous early coin collections centered around the great gold rarities of the day. Today top quality rare U.S. gold coins remain one of the most popular areas of the U.S. coin market. There are several reasons why U.S. gold coins should be a part of everyone’s portfolio.
1. Past Performance. Top quality rare gold coins have been one of the best performers in the numismatic market place. Since 1970 they have increased in price and average of 39.8% per year.
2. Limited Downside Risk. With a few exceptions, rare gold coins hold up very well during market turndowns. In fact, in the 1986 and 1987 bear market, only $20 Saint-Gaudens and $20 Liberties went down significantly in price. Most other gold issues held their value very well, and proof gold coins actually went up during the bear market.
3. Rarity. All U.S. gold coins are rare in MS64 or better condition. The only coin that can be found with any frequency at all is the $20 Saint-Gaudens, and those are not that easy to buy in quantity. These are truly rare coins.
4. Great Value. While gold coins are expensive on a per coin basis, they are tremendous values. These coins are really rare. Many of the issues have two, three, five, ten, etc., known in certain conditions that have been graded by PCGS. The types of rare gold coins that now sell for $5,000, $10,000, $15,000, will be the rarities that sell for $25,000 to $100,000 per coin when the rare coin market goes into the next major bull market.
5. Gold. There’s a mystique about gold. There’s a extra incentive, if you will, to buy and own rare gold coins. These coins are the ultimate in rarity and desirability.

MINT STATE GOLD
There are three major areas of the rare gold market: mint state gold, proof gold, and commemorative gold. For mint state gold most frequently-traded issues are the twelve major types of gold coins issued between 1840 and 1933. Gold coins issued before 1840 are very expensive and extremely rare. For those who have a large portfolio, they may be appropriate. However, they’re beyond the scope of this analysis. If anybody is interested in these extreme gold rarities, please call me or my partner, Wan Simmons, and we’ll discuss it.

Here’s an analysis of the twelve major areas of U.S. mint state gold. In this analysis, I’ve included the current selling price for PCGS graded coins in the grade MS64, MS65 and MS66. I have also included the PCGS population, i.e., the number of coins graded in a particular grade by PCGS, as of April 1, 1988.

Gold Dollar, Type 1 $4875 in MS64, $10,900 in MS65, $17,200 in MS66. PCGS Population: 91 in MS64, 20 in MS65, 7 in MS66. Type I gold dollars are one the rarest of the twelve major type issues. In fact, the “Relative Rarity List” in A Mercenary’s Guide to the Rare Coin Market lists them as the third rarest of the twelve major types. They were made between 1849 and 1854. They’re not difficult to find in lower grades but, above MS64 they are really tough to locate. This is a great little gold coin with a tremendous amount of history surrounding it. Both gold dollars and $20 gold pieces began to be minted in 1849, largely in response to the new gold discoveries in California and some of the other western states. This is the all time classic.

Gold Dollar, Type 2 $14,900 in MS64, $26,250 in MS65, $43,000 in MS66. PCGS Population: 38 in MS64, 9 in MS65, none in MS66. This is the rarest of the twelve major gold issues. In Gem condition. Type 2 gold dollars have always been one the most desirable United States coins. The Philadelphia Mint issued the majority of Type 2 gold dollars in 1854 and 1855. Extremely small amounts were issued at the branch mint of Charlotte, Dahlonega and New Orleans in 1855, and a similarly small amount was issued by the San Francisco Mint in 1856. As you can see by the PCGS population, this is a true rarity – over 600,000 coins graded by PCGS only nine Type 2 gold dollars that grade MS65. They are expensive, but they should perform superbly in the next major bull market.

Gold Dollar, Type 3 $3200 in MS64, $5250 in MS65, $9200 in MS66. PCGS Population: 341 in MS64, 233 in MS65, and 75 in MS66. These gold coins were minted between 1856 and 1889. They are a classic form of concentrated wealth and one of my favorite U.S. coin issues. The Gem gold dollar is really a pretty little coin. The most frequently encountered date are those between 1880 and 1889. The easiest date to is the 1889 (87 graded MS65 by PCGS), followed by the 1880 and 1883. All of the pre-1879 issues have PCGS populations of between zero and sex coins graded MS65. In other words, these are tremendous values and should outperform the general rare gold market in the next bull market. You can get a lot of value for a very small premium.

$2 ½ Liberty $1725 in MS64, $3975 in MS65, $9750 in MS66. PCGS Population: 640 in MS64, 246 in MS65, 29 in MS66. $2 ½ liberties were minted between 1840 and 1907. They are moderately scarce in top condition, as you can see from the population report. They also have a very moderate pricing-structure. They represent great value at current levels, particularly in MS65 and MS66. Prior to 1898 all of the issues have extremely low populations in both MS64 and MS65. I really like the early low mintage dates. You can buy these tremendous rarities for an extremely small premium over common date price.

$2 ½ Indians. $2175 in MS64, $4025 in MS65, $15,500 in MS66. PCGS Population: 454 in MS64, 98 in MS65, 6 in MS66. 2 ½ Indians were made between 1908 and 1929. The $2 ½ and $5 Indians are the only U.S. Coins that have an incuse design. i.e., the coin design is struck into the coin rather than sticking out of the coin. This means that the normally recessed fields are very high up and prone to attracting marks, nicks, etc. you can see from the MS64 to MS65 population ratio that the survival rate for the 2 ½ Indian in MS65 or better is excessively small. These are great little coins, and I recommend that you take a look at purchasing them with an eye to buying the slightly rare dates at little or no premium price.

$3 Gold $9450 in MS64, $16,600 in MS65, $34500 in MS66. PCGS Population: 107 in MS64, 27 in MS65, none in MS66. These coins are listed in A Mercenary’s Guide to the Rare Coin Market as the second rarest of the major U.S. gold type coins. $3 gold pieces were minted between 1854 and 1889 in extremely limited quantities. Only three dates have a PCGS population of more than one coin graded MS65. All $3 gold pieces are very rare in MS64 or better condition. They are a classic U.S. rarity. Also note that Gem Three’s were selling in the $40,000 to $50,000 range in the last raging bull market (1979-1980). I expect even more frenzied action and some truly record prices for these rarities the next time the market goes crazy.

$5 Liberty $3725 in MS64, $8250 in MS65, $14,900 in MS66. PCGS Population: 279 in MS64, 67 in MS65, and even those have PCGS populations of eight coins or less in MS65, any Ms65 or better $5 Lib should be considered a major rarity.

$5 Indian  $5300 in MS64, $6900 in MS65, $25,250 in MS66. PCGS Population: 152 in MS64, 21 in MS65, 3 in MS66. $5 Indians were minted between 1908 and 1929. Like the $2 ½ Indians, this is a Pretty weird coin. They are very rare in PCGS graded MS64 or better condition. Actually I feel that grading is a little strange on this issue, and I have tended to shy away from it in the past. If you are building a type set go ahead and buy one; otherwise, I’d probably look elsewhere.

$10 Liberty $4025 in MS64, $8450 in MS65, $15,000 in MS66. PCGS Population: 250 in MS64, 63 in MS65, 8 in MS66. $10 Liberties were minted between 1838 and 1907. Like the $5 Liberties they are really rare in MS65 condition and excessively rare in MS66 or better condition. The 1901-S is the real common date of the series. In fact, it’s the only common date of the series. But even the 1901-S must be considered scarce in top condition. Gold is a very soft metal, and these big gold coins got pretty marked up as they were shipped from bank to bank. In both MS64 and MS65, I give $10 an extremely high recommendation.

$10 Indian $4025 in MS64, $9350 in MS65, $17,200 in MS66. PCGS Population: 404 in MS64, 89 in MS65, 7 in MS66. Talk about a classic coin! Here’s one of the most beautiful coins ever minted by any country, and it’s also one of the rarest U.S. coins. There are actually two types of $10 Indians: 1907 and 1908 No Mottos, and the 1908 to 1932 With Mottos. $10 Indians are quite simply one of the best coins you can buy.

$20 Liberty $2400 in MS64, $7800 in MS65, $14,300 in MS66. PCGS Population: 811 in MS64, 115 in MS65, 7 in MS66. $20 Liberties were minted between 1850 and 1907. In lower grades they are somewhat plentiful. In fact, in the 1940AEs, 1950’s and 1960’s they were one of the bullion coins of choice when other forms of gold bullion ownership were illegal. In top condition they are quite scarce. In MS65 or better condition they are downright rare. The only real common date is the 1904 Philadelphia. All other dates are nearly impossible to find in MS65 condition. These large, beautiful, gold coins are a great gold buy.

$20 Saint-Gaudens $1475 in MS64, $2950 in MS65, $9200 in MS66. PCGS Population: 7582 in MS64, 1802 in MS65, 92 in MS66. $20 Saint-Gaudens were minted between 1907 and 1933. Quite simply, the Saint-Gaudens is not only the world’s more beautiful coin, it is also the world’s most popular. This is the old gold coin that is readily available in top condition. Note that prices have come down tremendously in the past two years. In fact, $20 Saint-Gaudens are selling for about 55 cents on the dollar of their 1986 highs. In the past 45 days $20 Saint-Gaudens have increased in price about 20%! It’s pretty logical that this bellwether issue would lead the market as it turns around. I’ve often made the statement that $20 Saint-Gaudens belong in every portfolio. Note that you should also give a serious look at some of the better-date $20 Saint-Gaudens. They represent tremendous values at very modest premiums.

PROOF GOLD

Proof gold is the caviar of numismatics. These coins have the highest degree of rarity. They are also among the most expensive U.S. coins as a group. Many of these issues have original mintages of only 10, 20, 50, etc., pieces. As a general rule, the survival rate of proof gold is about 50% of the original mintage. So you can see these are really rare in any grade.
As I mentioned earlier, proof gold coins actually went up in price during the 1986-1987 bear market. There’s a lot of demand and very little supply. Even thought proof gold has performed well in the past five years, the coins are still selling at discounts off of their 1980 highs. When the coin market goes crazy, these ultra-rare coins sell for a solute moon prices. It doesn’t take much imagination to figure out what they will do the next time the market neats up in a big way.

Gold Dollar $5750 in PR64, $10,300 in PR65, $17,200 in PR66. PCGS Population: 49 in PR64, 12 in PR65, 3 in PR66. As you can see from the population figures, proof gold dollars are really rare. You can’t find a proof gold dollar issue that has more than three examples graded by PCGS in PR65 condition. You can’t find a proof gold dollar that has more than eleven coins graded totally in PR64 or better condition. Proof gold dollars are the moderately priced of the gold issues, though they are not the most common. I really like their long-term potential.

$2 ½ Liberty $9450 in PR64, $14,300 in PR65, $21,2150 in PR66. PCGS Population: 86 in PR64, 35 in PR65, 7 in PR66. Proof $2 ½ Liberties are one of my favorite gold issues. They are more available than some of the other proof golf issues, but they are definitely rare. This classic issue has a very interesting price history. In fact, in 1980 they were wholesaling for $25,000. It’s not hard for me to imagine them selling in the $25,000 to $40,000 price range in the next few years. Note that you can buy the earlier (and ever rarer) dates for extremely modest premiums.

$2 ½ Indians $10,000 in PR64, $16,100 in PR65, $25,250 in PR66. PCGS Population: 40 in PR64, 25 in PR65,10 in PR66. Proof 2 ½ Indians were struck with a grainy, “matte” surface in 1908 and 1911 through 1915. Proof 2 ½ Indians were struck with a satin, “Roman” finish in 1909 and 1910. Note the same types of finishes were used for proof $5 Indians, $10 Indians and $20 Saint-Gaudens issue. They are extremely rare and quite popular. Over the years I have build several complete sets that have turned out to be some of the most profitable things my clients have ever done. Proof $2 ½ Indians are an excellent buy at current levels.

$3 Gold $15,500 in PR64, $29,750 in PR65, $48,500 in PR66. PCGS Population: 35 in PR64, 9 in PR65, none in PR66. All proof gold is very rare. Proof Three’s are literally the rarest of the rare.  Proof Three’s were issued for about 30 years, but note that PCGS has graded only nine coins of the entire type PR65. Theses are expensive coins, but they could be appropriate for someone with a very large portfolio.

$5 Liberty $11,500 in PR64, $25,250 in PR65, $40,000 in PR66. PCGS Population: 44 in PR64, 12 in PR65, none in PR66. For a long time matte proof gold has been considered rare than brilliant proof gold and has sold for higher prices. The PCGS population figured prove that brilliant proof gold is actually rare in PR65 or better condition. I highly recommend the purchase of PR65, $5, $10, and $20 Liberties.

$5 Indians $13,200 in PR64, $20,000 in PR65, $32,750 in PR66. PCGS Populations: 17 in PR64, 16 in PR65, 13 in PR66. Like the $2 ½ Indians, these experimental coins have long been a favorite issue with rare coin buyers. They’re expensive,  but once again they have a lot of upside potential and are quite appropriate for large portfolios.

$10 Liberty $14,300 in PR64, $28,750 in PR65, $46,000 in PR66. PCGS Population: 18 in PR64, 4 in PR65, none in PR66. Now we’re getting to the really elite, ultra-rarities of the rare gold coin market. In Proof 64 or better $10 Libs are great deals for those with large portfolios. You will probably never find one, but if you do I strongly recommend its purchase.

$10 Indians $16,100 in PR64, $31,500 in PR65, $43,000 in PR66. PCGS Population: 12 in PR64, 11 in PR65, 9 in PR66. Proof $10 Indians are quite a bit rarer than the $2 ½ and $5 Indians. These coins are rarely available. I envision these coins selling for $100,000 to $125,000 in PR65 in the latter part of the next bull market.

$20 Liberty $25,750 in PR64, $59,500 in PR65, $74,500 in PR66. PCGS Population: 16 in PR64, 3 in PR65, none in PR66. This issue is listed in A Mercenary’s Guide to the Rare Coin Market as the rarest of the ten major proof gold types. What more can I say? This is one of the few coins that I would even recommend in the PR63 grade.

$20 Saint-Gaudens $26,250 in PR64, $40,000 in PR65, $51,500 in Pr66. PCGS Population: 15 in PR64, 16 in PR65, 4 in PR66. Listed in A Mercenary’s Guide to the Rare Coin Market as the second rarest of the major proof gold types. A proof $20 Saint-Gaudens is a breathtaking coin. If you ever have the chance to hold on in your hand, you’ll known what I mean. Note that the price record for this issue is $120,000 (set during May 1980 auction).

GOLD COMMEMORATIVES

Between 1903 and 1926, the Mint issued 13 different gold commemorative issues. These include nine different gold dollars, two $2 ½ pieces, and two types of $50 “slugs.” The $50 slugs are extremely expensive ($40,000 and up), and I won’t cover them in this issue except to say they’re an okay deal if you have a larger portfolio. I’ll confine my comments to the eleven smaller coins. Note that these coins are often collected as a set and in fact, are one of the most popular of all United States coin sets. I like, and I love the idea of building complete sets. Here’s the individual analysis:

1903 Jefferson Gold Dollar $2300 in MS64, $4475 in MS65, $7150 in MS66. PCGS Population: 106 in MS64, 72 in MS65, 10 in MS66. This is probably the easiest of the eleven issues to locate in top condition. However, by no stretch of the imagination can it be called a common coin. This beautiful issue is a great buy in current levels.

1903 McKinley Gold Dollar $2300 in Ms64, $4475 in MS65, $7750 in MS66. PCGS Population: 93 in MS64, 52 in MS65, 3 in MS66. This issue is slightly rarer than the 1903 Jefferson, though the pricing structure is very similar. This is a great buy at current levels.

1904 Lewis and Clark Gold Dollar $4825 in MS64, $9750 in MS65, $13,800 in MS66. PCGS Population: 41 in MS64, 18 in MS65, 2 in MS66. Listed in A Mercenary’s Guide to the Rare Coin Market as the second rarest of the eleven gold commemoratives. This is one of the rarest 20^th century gold type coins. This is a great coin and should have incredible demand in the years to come.

1915-S Panama-Pacific Gold Dollar $2225 in MS64, $4025 in MS65, $9200 in MS66. PCGS Population: 159 in MS64, 35 in MS65, 1 in MS66. This coin is somewhat available in MS64, but it is a good value at the current price. In MS65, this issue is actually quite an underrated sleeper.

1915-S Panama-Pacific $2 ½ $3325 in MS64, $5450 in MS65, $11,500 in MS66. PCGS Population: 106 in MS64, 51 in MS65, 3 in MS66. Panama-Pacific Quarter Eagles have actually been somewhat overrated in the past. This is a rare coin though, and the pricing structure looks pretty good now. I recommend the purchase of this issue in grades of MS65 or better.

1916 McKinley Gold Dollar $2450 in MS64, $4825 in MS65, $9200 in MS66. PCGS Population: 115 in MS64, 36 in MS65, 3 in MS66. Both the 1916 and 1917 McKinley gold dollars are underrated in top condition. This is especially true in MS65 or better condition. At current price levels, they are probably my favorite gold commemorative issue.

1917 McKinley Gold Dollar $2300 in MS64, $5150 in MS65, $10,900 in MS66. PCGS Population: 72 in MS64, 22 in MS65, 1 in MS66. This is a super sleeper in MS65 condition and one of my top picks in the rare gold market.

1922 Grant “No Star” Gold Dollar $2750 in MS64, $3775 in MS65, $7150 in MS66. PCGS Population: 77 in MS64, 43 in MS65, 5 in MS66. Considering the rarity, this is a very modestly priced coin. This is issue represents excellent value especially in MS65 condition.

1922 Grant “Star” Gold Dollar $2750 in MS64, $3675 in MS65, $7100 in MS66. PCGS Population: 114 in MS64, 70 in MS65, 9 in MS66. This issue is okay at current levels and is even better as part of a complete gold commemorative set.

1926 Sesquicentennial $2 ½ $2750 in MS64, $8600 in MS65, $17,200 in MS66. PCGS Population: 94 in MS64, 7 in MS65, none in MS66. This is the condition rarity of the gold commemorative market. You can find them in grades up to and including MS64, but after that you can forget about it. A good deal in MS64; an even better deal in MS65.

THE TEN BEST BUYS IN THE RARE GOLD

The following represent my opinion as the ten best buys in the rare gold market. I have selected these coins on the basis of pure value at current price levels. I feel these ten coins will be the best performers over the next few years. Note that these coins are not listed in any order of preference, and, as always, these recommendations apply to PCGS graded coins only.

1. $5 Liberty, MS64. Current selling price $3725. $5 Liberties are one of the rarer of the major gold types, and the current pricing structure is extremely advantageous. In MS64, the $5 Liberty is a very attractive coin and should remain in constant demand. Note that some of the people putting together type sets of U.S. gold will be unable to afford the much more expensive MS65 example of this key issue.

2. $5 Liberty, MS65. Current selling price $8250. Only 67 of this rarity have been graded by PCGS. This is a classic U.S. gold issue, and it’s certainly capable of selling in the $25,000 to $30,000 price range within the next few years.

3. $10 Liberty, MS64. Current selling price $4615. This coin is recommended for the same reasons as MS64 $5 Liberties. The $10 Liberties are slightly rarer. A great buy.

4. $10 Liberty, MS65. Current selling price $8450. Only 63 $10 Liberties have been graded MS65 by PCGS. This is one of the most important U.S. gold issues; and it’s rarity in top condition, coupled with its always significant demand, assure great price movement in the next bull market.

5. $2 ½ Liberty, PR65. Current selling price $14,300. Only 35 graded PR65 by PCGS. Proof gold is the elite coinage of the U.S. numismatic marketplace. This coin has great upside potential and will easily surpass its 1980 highs ($25,000 plus whole sale) in the ever near future.

6. $5 Liberty, PR65. Current selling price $37,250. Only 12 graded PR65 by PCGS. This great piece of U.S. numismatic history is just about as rare and desirable as a coin can get. Unbelievable upside potential.

7. 1916 McKinley Gold Dollar, MS65. Current selling price $4825. Only 36 grade MS65 by PCGS. This is one of the most underrated issues in the important gold commemorative series.

8. 1917 McKinley Gold Dollar, MS65. Current selling price $5150. Only 22 graded MS65 by PCGS. Even rare than 1916 McKinley. This is probably the best buy in the gold commemorative market.

9. Complete Eleven Piece Set of Gold Commemoratives. Current selling price: $30,000 to $35,000 for MS64 set, $60,000 to $75,000 in MS65, and $100,000 to $125,000 in MS66. This is probably the best complete set of U.S. gold coins to assemble. This set is popular; and as far as gold coins go, it’s affordable. In addition, complete sets carry a premium in excess of the total value of the individual coins (more about that in a minute).

10. Complete Type Sets of U.S. Gold Coins – Both Eight Piece and Twelve Piece Sets. Current price for the eight piece set: $25,000 to $30,000 in MS64, $55,000 to $65,000 in MS65,$110,000 to $130,000 in MS66. For the twelve piece set: $55,000 to $65,000 in MS64, $110,000 to $130,000 in MS65, $200,000 to $240,000 in MS66. This, of course, isn’t single coins, but sets of coins.

Coin and Bullion Dealer Accreditation Program (CABDAP). The goal of this outstanding program is to protect the consumer by acknowledge those dealers who adhere to the highest professional and ethical standards. I personally believe that this important move towards self regulation will give many more potential investor the reassurance they need to venture into this field which they otherwise might feel uncomfortable with.
As far as the financial community is concerned, several brokerage houses and investment firms have at last come to recognize the potential of rare coins and have established limited partnerships to invest in this commodity. In fact, since 1986 my own company has managed a very successful coin growth fund and income fund for Dunham and Greer Investment Counsel Inc., an investment firm based in San Diego, Ca.
Besides bringing an entire new group of buyers into the market place the involvement of an increasing number of investment firms is sending a strong signal to the general investment community that rare coins are indeed a viable and legitimate investment tool.
Another pronounced example of the evolution of the rare coin industry took place in July of last year when a division of General Electric purchased a major American rare coin firm that was producing sales of more than $115 million annually. Obviously the executives of G.E., a traditionally conservative multinational corporation, must believe that the rare coin market has tremendous long-term potential or such a purchase would never have been made. The land mark buy-out also tells us that coins have truly come of age, attracting the attention of large business entities.
The cumulative effect of the above mentioned factors plus many other variables all combine to insure a bright future for this relatively young market place. It is my belief that as more and more people discover the viability of rare coins as an investment vehicle, the next decade will see the numismatic industry expand its current boundaries.

IT’S HERE THE REAL BULL MARKET

This is the story of the coming bull market. As a coin dealer, I am supposed to tell stories of coming bull markets. Such stories sell coins, if the teller has an credibility. The more the author is sincere and sure of his position, it seems, the more the skeptics have to yell about. “Hype,” they scream –Invariably. Fortunately, there are no skeptics in Bairland, so here I go with my tale of fantasy that is soon to be fact.
The previous bull markets—you know the dates (1972-74, 1977-80, 1983-86)—had everything but one element going for them. There was a strong collector/investor base, intense interest in the market, national attention, and confused press, new “fresh” money, active coin shows, euphoria about how it may never end, misinformation and disinformation, and a lot of fun. The markets had everything but guarantee. Not a guarantee that prices couldn’t fall – no one in touch with reality expects that – but a guarantee that grades wouldn’t “change” again. Different markets have interpreted quality different times. It’s true. Not good, not confidence building, but true.
The solution was grading guarantee that was accepted industry-wide. The term usually heard—third party grading—had been around for awhile in several different forms. Maybe it was unbiased, maybe it wasn’t.. Maybe it was accurate, maybe not. Regardless, “third party grading” was not a guarantee.
Some coin dealers sought a solution by sealing their coins in holders and offering to buy the coins as graded at their buy price regardless of where the market headed. A vast improvement over the past, yes, but the customer was still reliant up the longevity and financial stability of the one dealer.
“If you want a market—a real market with real players–,” advised financial guru, “you need a never-changing grading standard and market-makers with money and credibility.”

Easier said than done. Some revolutionary idead were needed to solve the problems of implementing a totally new system. How could dealers be protected from coin-switchers? How could the customer be protected from coin-switchers? How could mis-handling of coins be avoided? How could dealers and customers in markets be reported and tracked? How …how could this system be made to work?
it was needed so badly that it had to work. Originally, there were to be 33 dealers in the PCGS system. A sonically-sealed, tamper proof holder would solve the “sight-unseen” problem. An established and diverse group of dealers would make the marketing aspect work.  With the attitude of “Let’s go for it” the Professional Coin Grading Service was launched in February of 1986.
While the “It’ll never fly” crowd waited for disaster, PCGS grew. Coin submissions, anticipated to be a few thousand a month, averaged 25,000 a month for the first two years, then increased. The dealer network, thought to grow “near 50” in the coming years, swelled to over 250 in two years.

The real success—what this article is about—is just beginning to be seen. The bull market is here, in the face of recessionary threats, with an unanticipated acceptance. Rare coin have started going up quickly as the supply—yields helplessly to a growing demand.
It had to work—and it does.

Okay– so what? There have been bull markets before, without PCGS. Yes, and each time the bear market appeared, interesting financial possibilities along with a tremendous pride of ownership and sense of accomplishment. I’m convinced that complete sets of PCGS graded coins are one of the waves of the future. I’m also convinced that type sets of gold are among the best sets to pursue. (All rights reserved)

Collecting seems to be a genetic disorder that affects millions of people each year. Several members of my family, including myself, are afflicted. The first manifestations came when I was seven, in the form of baseball card collecting. By the time I was, eight, stamp collecting was a primary symptom. At nine, coin collecting had become compulsion. I still remember looking at a friend’s Very Fine Liberty Nickel as if it were the Star of India. My first Seated Dime conjured top visions of the Old West and cowboys. I fell in love with coins. They completely dominated any other interests I had, including school work. The trouble with the collecting disease is that it is incurable, and is treatable only by spending an irrational percentage of one’s disposable income buying what one collects. By the time I was 12, my coin collecting taste exceeded my lawn mowing income. With crises, though, often comes opportunity. Many of my schoolmates had started collecting coins, and I began to supplement my income with judicious sales and trades with my fellow pre-pubescent numismatists. Soon my lawn mowing days were behind me. My commercial interest in coins continued to grow. I had my first table at a coin show when I was 13, and I ran my first numismatic advertisement a year later. Each year, my collecting interest became more subservient to my commercial endeavors. By the time I was 18, the disease was in complete remission. For 17 years, with the exception of brief bouts with encased percussion Colt firearms and U.S. stamps, I collected nothing at all. Nothing recaptured the thrill I had experienced when I first collected coins. Then I discovered collecting documents, books and maps to Texas, generally referred to as Texana. Being a fourth generally referred to as Texan, and possessing a highly deficient collecting immune system as well as having the prerequisite of disposable income, my fate was sealed. As many of you can commiserate, I have become the consummate, compulsive provincial, I am very proud to be a Texan. While regional pride is certainly common in this county, nowhere does it approach the dimensions that it does here in Texas. To my knowledge, Texas is one of the few states where it is mandated by the legislature that a course in the state’s history is a *required subject in state accredited schools. In spite of what one might think about Texas, it is special in many respects. In addition to being the largest of contiguous 48 states, Texas has an extremely colorful and rich heritage. It is the only state in the Union which was at one time a sovereign nation. The 27-year period from the first Anglo immigration in 1821 until the end of the Mexican War and the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in 1848 represents as exciting a period of history as any on the North American Continent, with the possible exception of the Revolutionary Was. During this time, Texas went from being a virtually uninhibited Mexican state to a revolutionary state, then an independent, sovereign nation and finally the 28^th state in the Union. At the end of the Mexican War, which occurred as a result of the United States’ annexation of Texas into the Union, the U.S. was ceded what now comprises that majority of the western United States, in accordance with the treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo. It is reasonable to assume that had it not been the vision, determination and courage of the Texas leaders during this quarter century, the U.S. as we know it today, could fundamentally different both geographically and economically. The heroes of Texas, men such as Stephen F. Austin, James Bowie, Davey Crockett, William Barrett Travis and Sam Houston, are known to all of you. These men were legends in their own time, but in addition to these men there were dozens of others of nearly equal status. In 1836, Texas had a population of approximately 30,000 Anglo-Americans, which represented less than one-tenth of one percent of the then current population of the U.S. Yet, with the “Caption of Andrew Jackson and Daniel Webster, few Americans approached the status of these Texas giants. What drew these men to Texas remains unclear, but their greatness is not a subject of dispute. Sam Houston, for example, had a career virtually unparalleled in the annals of American history. He was, among other things, a hero of the Way of 1812, a U.S. congressman from on state and a U.S. senator from another. He was the governor of two different states, an Indian chief, as well as the Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Army of Texas. He was the president of one country, and had it not been for his highly principled stand against secession, he probably would have been the president of another. In total, there have been over 100,000 books written, about Texas, or people in Texas, which is more than any other single state. Furthermore, if you were to eliminate California, the books written about Texas would be more numerous than all other books written about all other states combined. If you were to add to this all the maps and written documents one could collect concerning Texas, it would be overwhelming. I have chosen the 1821-1848 period as my primary collecting interest. Fortunately, probably the best single regional bibliographical reference work ever done was compiled by Thomas W. Streeter about Texas imprints covering the period 1795 to 1845. As with many collectors of Texana, Mr. Streeter was not a Texas, but was in fact from New Jersey. His collection is by far the greatest ever assembled by an individual, and is now housed at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut. Presently, I have approximately 200 of the listed Streeter items out of several thousand listings. In addition, I have many manuscript items from this period. The favorite piece in the my collection is an original broadside imprint of the Texas Declaration of Independence written in 1836, and modeled in large part after the U.S. example written some seventy years prior. It is only one or two known copies in private hands. Every item in my collection, however, is exciting to me in many different ways. While my collecting tastes have changed since I began collecting tastes have changed since I began collecting baseball cards, I have recaptured the thrill I felt looking at the Very Fine Liberty Nickel over 30 years ago. Every man, woman, and child should have a passion, and I feel blessed that I have one. Others may laugh and think collecting curious whether it be Texana or numismatics. I say it is we who should laugh at them. (All rights reserved)

The elusive 1879-S Reverse of ’78 Morgan silver dollar has frustrated and tormented both professional and amateur numismatists. This coin as a deep mirror cameo proof-like in MS-65 or better is exceedingly scarce. This point is further proven when testing the market around the country, where only one or two coins can be observed for sale at most major coin shows. The basis for this rarity is discussed in the following essay, along with an analysis of investment potential for the coin.
From 1879 to 1883, the San Francisco mint produced only silver dollars. With such a specialized schedule, the silver dollars from this period were among the best ever produced. Several design changes were implemented during that interim, with the more dramatic ones occurring in 1887 and 1879.
All 1878-S silver dollars were made with the Type II Obverse as compared to the Type III Obverse used in 1879-S silver dollars. The Type II Obverse is characterized by some, but not all, of the following traits: (1) narrow rim; (2) less pronounced band in lower part of cap; (3) less detail on tops of cotton blossoms; (4) thicker Liberty letters with more slanted tail of L; and (5) thick eyelash. The Type III Obverse is distinguished by the following details: (1) more detail in cotton blossom; (2) lines in wheat leaves; (3) thinner letters in Liberty; and (4) wide rim.
The Type B Reverse was used in 1878-S production and is characterized by the following; (1) parallel arrow feathers; (2) flat eagle’s breast; (3) A of America touching eagle’s wing; (4) hook on eagle’s beak; and (5) narrow rim.
The Type C Reverse was used in 1879-S production and is described as follows: (1) round eagle’s breast; (2) slanted top arrow feather; (3) A of America not touching eagle’s wing; (4) wide rim; and (5) wreath bounded by seven berries on the right and ten berries on the left.
Undoubtedly some challenges will be raised at this point concerning the major difference between Type A and Type B/C Reverses. This is set out separately since it is the key difference. Early 1878-P production used the Type A Reverse, with either tail feathers, for approximately 750,000 coins before changing to Type B. The change was directed by advice to mint personnel that most American eagles had seven tail feathers rather than eight.
Additional history regarding the eagle’s tail feathers has been provided by Harry S. Foreman of Philadelphia. According to Mr. Foreman, an eagle by the name of Peter had free roam of Philadelphia mint and was considered a pet by mint personnel. By “legend,” he was the model for the Flying Eagle cent and Morgan dollar series. Peter met his demise as a result of injuries from getting too close to certain machinery, but his remains were stuffed and displayed at the mint. Examination revealed neither eight nor seven, but nine tail feathers! Does this mean that we should make new dies and start up production again in order to finally get it right? Oh well, nobody’s perfect!
During early 1879 the San Francisco mint experienced difficulty in keeping current with Reverse changes. Consequently, a small portion of the 1879-S run included a Type III Obverse and a Type B Reverse. These coins are commonly referred to as either 1879-S Flat Breast or 1879-S Reverse of ’78.
The run of 1879-S Reverse of ’78 was relatively small compared to the San Francisco mint’s totally production for 1879. Records indicate that was 9,110,000 silver dollars, of which the known existing percentage of uncirculated 1879-S Reverse of ’78 is less than ½%! This ½% puts the number of 1879-S Flat Breast minted in the range of 3,000 to 4,000 uncirculated coins, most of which are in MS-60 condition. MS-63s can be found, but MS-65s are very scarce, if not rare.
Up to this point we have discussed the major Obverse and Reverse characteristics and types for this subject period. In conjunction with this< we have discussed the condition which created the small number of 1879-S Reverse of ’78 uncirculated silver dollars. Obviously other areas—current history, general traits and the impact of the Redfield collection—require additional comment.
Prior to the discovery of the Redfield collection, the only known and documented original B.U. Roll of 1879-S Reverse of ’78 was handled in 1967 by Dean Tavenner of Deer Lodge, Montana. Two other major silver dollar dealers in the Montana are handled a few rolls of this variety, interestingly enough in 1975, but these rolls graded in the AU to AU plus category.
Usually the 1879-S Flat Breast silver dollar exhibits exceptional luster and a very strong strike. Bag marks on the Obverse generally appear as heavy to very heavy, with the Reverse exhibiting few to normal. Research has lent no clues to the cause of the pattern, but possibilities include the transportation means and storage methods employed by LaVere Redfield. Redfield used to drive a pick-up truck to sell vegetables, probably tossing coin bags of silver dollars into the back of the truck to bounce around with the vegetables. He was also known to have dropped bags of silver dollars down a coal chute in his house to the basement! All this could have contributed greatly to the heavy bag marks, but the truth remains a mystery.
In 1976, after a lengthy settlement of the estate by a probate court and intensive bidding, the Redfield hoard became available for distribution and sale. Within Redfield’s accumulations were three bags of 1879-S Reverse of ’78 Morgan silver dollars, later obtained by a major mid-western coin dealer who ultimately placed two of the bags with one dealer and the third with another. All three bags have since been broken up and sold individually.
As a rule, the 1879-S Reverse of ’78 Morgan silver dollars are the least readily found of all the Morgan dollars in “every” grade. They are rare as deep mirror cameo proof-likes in MS-65 or better. When available, however, this coin is not uncommon in low grade BU (Ms-60) with a proof-like Reverse. Some coins may occasionally be found in XF of AU grade. The 1879-S Flat Breast is considered more scarce than the 1885-CC or 1903-O in grades under MS-60.
The impact of the Redfield hoard on the silver dollar market has apparently been positive rather than dilutive, which would be a normal first assumption. This hoard has created much publicity and has attracted more silver dollar collected and investors to the market, creating increased demand rather than flooding the market as was first anticipated. The point is supported by expert dealers that there are more collectors and investors of silver dollars than with any other U.S. coin, except possibly the Lincoln cent.
Another important consideration should be made regarding the supply of the 1879-S Reverse of ’78. The knowledgeable persons involved with the three bags from the Redfield collection are in agreement that there are probably no other hidden hoards. Basically, what is available in the market place now is the only remaining supply.
In summary, the potential return on investment of this particular variety is excellent to outstanding. As we stated earlier, this variety represents less than ½% of the totally dollar production for the San Francisco mint in 1879. The characteristics of the coin regarding exceptional strike and luster are most desirable. This coin in MS-60 or better grade at a cost of less than $500.00 would represent an exceptional investment opportunity for the astute investor of collector. The future potential return on investment appears extremely attractive. However, I must add that finding a single piece in any grade can and will be a tough challenge. You may have to go to more than one major coin show in order to locate on coin. Good luck!

1878-7/8 TF: MS-64 DMPL. Scarce VAM-38 that approaches MS-65 quality.
1878-CC: Two MS-65 DMPL’s. Two blazing cameos, with flashy gold and purple rim toning.
Several MS-64 DMPL’s are also in his collection.
1878-S: MS-66 PL. Deep mirror cameo obverse with a PL reverse. Solid eye appeal.
1879: MS-65 DMPL, and an amazing MS-66 PL, tied with one other coin for the finest known!
1879-CC: MS-65 PL. ABSOLUTELY THE FINEST KNOWN!  This is the only MS-65 PL of this date
ever certified by ANY MAJOR SERVICE! One of the highlights of the Bill Lower Collection.
1879-O: An MS-64 DMPL with cameo contrast plus an MS-65 with creamy white luster and
canary yellow toning at the rims. Very close to MS-66.
1879-S: A frosty MS-67 with an incredible obverse!
1880: His impressive MS-65 DMPL was exceeded by his truly incredible MS-66 DMPL, an eye-    catching cameo, the finest ever graded by ANACS and tied for the finest known!
1880-O: MS-64 DMPL. A deeply mirrored cameo with heavy contrast. Tied for the highest grade
by ANACS.
1880-S: MS-67 PL. The obverse is DMPL.
1881: Ms-65 DMPL. So rare! Tied for the highest graded by any service.
1881-O: Ho-hum. Just a couple of MS-65’s.
1881-S: the aforementioned MS-68 is a “wow” coin. His cameo MS-67 DMPL isn’t bad, either.
1881-CC: I thought his MS-66 DMPL was a neat coin. But Bill’s MS-66 UDM was an amazing
cameo “headlight!”
1882: Bill’s rare MS-65 PL is barely worth mentioning. His two, yes TWO MS-65 DMPL’s were
tied with a few others for the finest known DMPL’s of this date. WERE? Yes, “were.”
The Lower Collection includes a stupendous 1882 in MS-66 DMPL, the FINEST KNOWN
ON THE PLANET! You will not believe this coin when you see it!
1882-CC: MS-65 UDM. “Across the room mirrors,” with exceptional cameo frost.
1882-O: MS-65 UDM. The highest graded UDM of this date by 3 points! I have never seen a
deeper, more heavily contrasted example of this date.
1882-O: MS-65 PL. Half of the reverse is covered by an arc of vivid, original bag toning.
1883: MS-65 DMPL. An attractive, deep, cameo.
1883-O: Bill’s MS-65 UDM reminds me of a Prooflike dollar! But his sensational MS-66 DMPL
is tied for the finest known DMPL of this date!
1883-S: MS-64. Frosty and untoned.
1884-CC: MS-67 UDM. This is only the SECOND MORGAN DOLLAR EVER GRADED MS-67 UDM!
A mind boggling “headlight” that virtually defied description! The jet-black ultra deep
mirrored fields frame the incredibly frosted essentially mark free devices. A wonderful
coin! ANACS grade Mike Faraone said, “just looking at this coin is an incredible
experience!”
1884-O: MS-65 UDM. A frosted cameo with the deepest mirrors I’ve ever seen on an ’84-O!
1885: MS-66 DMPL. Untoned blazer with a very clean cheek. The first MS-66 DMPL certified by ANACS.
1885-CC: Two MS-66 DMPL’s with light rim toning.
1885-O: Just an MS-65 DMPL. Am I spoiled, or what?
1885-S: MS-65 PL. The finest ever graded by ANACS and tied for the finest known PL of the
date.
1886: MS-66 PL. Untoned and very attractive.
1886-O: An MS-63 PL and an MS-64. Very scarce.
1886-S: MS-64 UDM. Incredible depth of mirrors! Beautiful purple/blue peripheral toning.
1887: MS-67 DMPL. The FINEST KNOWN DMPL OF THIS DATE, PERIOD! Moderate cameo
contrast highlights the sensational Morgan dollar. After examining this coin, ANACS        grader Charley Erb said “This is why people are attracted to Morgan dollars!” Amen.

1887-O: Three, count ‘em, three MS-64 DMPL’s, plus an amazing MS-65 Prooflike! Expensive.
1887-S: MS-66. Unbelievable frost over an incredibly sharp strike! Tied for the finest known!

This is the best 1887-S I have ever seen. Current certified Coin Dealer Newsletter bid is
$10,500. This coin may be worth more!
1888: MS-66 DMPL. Just a hint of yellow toning at the rims. Tied for the highest graded by
ANACS.
1888-O: MS-65 DMPL plus an MS-66 PL. The lower Collection is memorable for both its quality
and its quantity.
1888-S: Bill’s MS-64 DMPL is flashy. His MS-66 is outstanding! The obverse has light golden
toning over a nearly perfect cheek. The reverse features unforgettable lilac, blue and
canary yellow toning. What color!
1889: MS-66. Snow white, untoned, and a very sharp strike.
1889-O: MS065 PL, the highest graded by ANACS in PL, plus a superlative MS-66 the best I’ve
ever seen for this date.
1889-CC: MS-62 PL. A $10,000 coin that won’t impress you.
1889-S: MS-65 DMPL. So nice and so rare! A deeply reflective cameo. ANACS, PCGS and NGC
have each graded one MS-65 DMPL of this date. Is this the best of them?
1890: MS-64 DMPL. This very scarce deep cameo would be the highlight of many dollar
collections. It’s barely a footnote in the Lower Collection.
1890-O: A high end MS-64 DMPL and a fully gem MS-65 DMPL. Each coin has noticeable
cameo contrast.
1890-CC: Five, yes five MS-64 DMPL’s plus an unusually mark free MS-65 PL that is tied for the
finest known certified PL of this date!
1891-CC: MS-64 DMPL. An underrated date in this grade.
1891-O: MS-63 DMPL. A great rarity in Deep Mirror Prooflike.
1891-S: MS-65 PL. The highest graded PL of this date certified by ANACS.
1892: MS-64 PL. One of the finest known PL’s of this date in existence. An untoned beauty!
1893: Proof-65. A sharply struck, attractive proof.
1894: Proof-64 Cameo. Terrific cameo contrast.
1895: Proof-64. A near gem Proof example of this, “The King of the Morgan Dollars.”
1895-S: MS-64 PL. Just a few marks disturn the beautifully mirrored fields.
1897-S: An MS-65 DMPL and an MS-66. Two very neat coins.
1898: Unbelievably, the Lower Collection contains FOUR MS-65 DMPL 1898 dollars! An
amazing accumulation!
1898-O: Bill’s fabulour MS-66 DMPL was “blown away” by his unfathomable MS-67 DMPL
1898-O! This amazingly mark free deep cameo is THE HIGHEST GRADED DMPL OF THIS
DATE EVER GRADED BY ANY SERVICE! It was a thrill to examine this incredible dollar!
1899: MS-66 PL. The only MS-66 PL of this date certified by ANACS.
1899-O: MS-67. Milky white luster, a virtually perfect cheek, and yellow/gold peripheral toning,
plus an absolutely full strike! Wow, again!
1900: MS-66. Snow white and sharply struck.
1900-O: MS-64 DMPL. Not all coins of this date in 64 DMPL holders really are DMPL. This one is.
1900-S: MS-64 PL. Uncommon in PL.
1901: Proof-63. Seems ordinary compared to some other coins in the collection.
1902: MS-66. Exceptional luster grace this nearly Prooflike 1902 Morgan.
1903-O: MS-66. A creamy white untoned, blazing beauty.
1904: MS-64 PL. Tied for the finest known certified Prooflike of this date. A very rare date in PL.
And how about the Peace dollars in Bill Lower Collection? So far, only a few have been certified.
here are the highlights.
1922-S: MS-66. A hint of golden toning over lustrous, mark free surfaces. An unusually sharp
strike for the date. Tied for the finest known.
1923: MS-66. Several superb, untoned, gems.
1928: MS-65. Sharply struck and free of major abrasions.
1928-S: MS-65. The most sharply struck and lustrous example of this date I have ever seen at
ANACS. Among the finest known of this, the rarest date in the series in MS-65!
1935-S: MS-66. A pure white monster! One small mark on the neck from MS-67!!
ANACS has not yet seen all of the coins in Bill Lower’s fabulous dollar collection. However, more will be on their way to Columbus in the very near future. I am told there is a memorable 1884-S a superb 1896-S, an ultra rare Proof 1893-CC, plus some other sensational specimens!
Perhaps there will be a “Bill Lower Collection, Part II,” article in the future? I sincerely hope so!

Reprinted with permission from F.U.N. Topics Magazine.

Reprinted with permission from12th National Silver Dollar Convention. October 31, 1991.

One of the dates I have learned to appreciate during my numismatic career is the 1900-P Morgan Dollar. Back in the 1960’s and early 1970’s, most collectors regarded this issue as “just another common date dollar.” It received little fanfare virtually no respect.

Perhaps the 1900-P was a victim of circumstance. Its immediate predecessor, the 1899-P, was a popular date because of its very low mintage (just 330,00). The date which followed the 1900-P, ___ the 1901-P, has long been regarded with awe because of its status as an ultimate rarity in Choice and Gem condition. For decades, it seemed, the 1900-P was doomed to mediocrity while “flashier” dates, like the 1899-P and 1901-P, grabbed the limelight.

But during the “glory years of the silver dollar market (the late ‘70’s through the early ‘80’s), collectors, investors and dealers began to realize that the 1900-P was not quite as common as its 8.8 million mintage would indicate.” While average BU specimens were available in quantity, top quality specimens proved to be surprisingly elusive.

The onset of certified grading, encapsulation, and population reports proved a doubt that, in high grade, the 1900-P is much more than your ordinary common date. But, do current price levels accurately reflect its rarity? Is the 1900-P still an underrated date? These and other related questions will be addressed as we take a closer look at the 1900-P Morgan Dollar.

THE MINT STATE 1900-P DOLLAR

MS-63: Recent population reports from PCGS (Nov., 1990) and NGC (Jan., 1991) indicate that 3,147 1900-P dollars have been slabbed MS-63 (the first edition of the ANACS population report, due out shortly, may add a few hundred pieces to the total.) Compare that 3,147 total to the over 22,000 1881-P dollars graded MS-63. Yes, the 1900-P is than SEVEN TIMES SCARCER than the ’81-S! Yet the current (March 22, 1991) bid price in the Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter is virtually the same for each issue ($25 for the ’81-S and $27 for the 1900-P). At current prices, the MS-63 1900-P seems like a much better buy than the common “S”-mints.
MS-64: PCGS and NGC have encapsulated roughly 4,200 1900-P dollars in MS-63 (compared to about 36,000 1881-P dollars). Although the 1900-P is nearly NINE TIMES SCARCER in MS-64, it is bid basically the same price ($46 versus $34 for the ’81-S). The population of 4,200 makes the 1900-P somewhat scarcer than the 1883-CC and 1884-CC (with populations of almost 5,000 for each date in MS-64). With the CC’s bid at $108, doesn’t the 1900-P seem like a reasonable but a $46?

MS-65: With 1,156 pieces encapsulated in MS-65, the 1900-P is of about equal rarity with dates like 1902-O, 1896-P, 1903-P and 1885-CC. The 1900-P is SCARCER THAN THE 1881-CC IN MS-65, yet its current bid ($225), is less than half of the 1881-CC ($480). During the height of the 1989 bull market, the MS-65 1900-P rose to $1,040. The crash of 1990 saw this date fall precipitously to just $160, a drop of over 80 per cent! Since then, the 1900-P has recovered to its current bid of $225, still a far cry from its mid-1989 highs. At current levels, the Gem 1900-P seems like a risk worth taking for the prudent investor who buys with an eye toward relative rarity and price history.

MS-66: To date, only 38 1900-P dollars have been slabbed in MS-66 condition (compared to over 4,300 MS-66 1881-S dollars). As such, the 1900-P is, at last, a recognized rarity in superb condition, and NOT the common date it was once thought to be. The current bid of $1,700 seems low for a coin with such a small population in MS-66 condition.

THE PROOF-LIKE 1900-P DOLLAR

MS-63 AND MS-64 PROOFLIKE: 30 specimens have been graded MS-63 Prooflike (bid=$105), while 38 1900-P dollars have been slabbed MS-64 Prooflike (bid=$275). This is contrary to the conventional dollar wisdom of the 1970’s. In his An Analysis of Morgan and Peace Dollars (1976), renowned dollar expert Wayne Miller gave the Prooflike 1900-P a rarity-2 rating (1=most common; 10=scarcest). However, as the years went by, the true rarity of the 1900-P for what it is, a scarce date Prooflike. At $275 bid, the MS-64 Prooflike deserves to be in the investment portfolio of every dollar lover!

MS-65 PROOFLIKE: A miniscule 12 1900-P dollars have been certified MS-65 Prooflike (9 by PCGS, 3 by NGC and none by ANACS). One doubts if the current bid of $1,575 would be enough to pry loose a rare Gen Prooflike example of this date.

THE DEEP-MIRROR PROOF-LIKE 1900-P DOLLAR

The generally accepted standards for Deep Mirror Prooflike (DMPL) are 4 to 6 inches minimum of clear reflectivity on both sides of the coin (2 to 4 inches Prooflikes). To the surprise of many (but not me), the 1900-P ranks as one of the supreme rarities in the Morgan Dollar series in DMPL. Similarly, NGC has graded 1 MS-63 DMPL, no 64’s, and 1 MS-65 DMPL. I am aware of ! solitary MS-63 by ANACS. Since the major grading agencies have only graded 5 coins DMPL, the current bid levels must be regarded as theoretical. To the best of my knowledge, NO DMPL 1900-P DOLLARS HAVE EVER TRADED AT ANYWHERE NEAR BID LEVELS!

Speaking of bid levels, the great coin market crash of 1990 did not negatively affect bid prices for DMPL 1900-P dollar. At the height of the 1989 bull market, the MS-64 DMPL was bid at $675. Today, it is bid at $2,505! What is its true value? Who knows? What is known, for a fact, is that the Deep Mirror Prooflike 1900-P dollar is an extremely rare coin.

SUMMARY

The evolution of the silver dollar market continues. The encapsulated certified coin market is not even six years old. Population reports have reinforced some time honored beliefs. But these same reports have radically altered some of the popularly held myths in numismatics.

In the case of the 1900-P Morgan Dollar, the old belief that this is common date in grades MS-60 through MS-63 has been essentially sustained. In Ms-64 and MS-65, the reports reveal that the 1900-P is more than just a common date (although current bid levels don’t fully reflect this). In superb MS-66 condition, the 1900-P is now firmly established as a condition rarity, with just 38 pieces achieving MS-66 (compared to 4,300 for the ’81-S).

The traditional view that the 1900-P is a common the semi-common isuue in Prooflike condition has been laid to rest, forever! The population reports indicate that, in fact, this is one of the scarcer dates on the series in MS-63, MS-64 and MS-65 Prooflike condition. It is hard to believe that MS-64 P-L’s with a combined population of 38 coins, are bid at just $275. (Remember, the Mint State 66 1900-P, also with a population of 38 coins, is bid at $1,700, and the MS-66 1881-S, with a census of about 4,300 coins, is bid at $360.) Thus, the $275 bid for the MS-64 P-L 1900-P makes no sense at all. No doubt, wise buyers are taking advantage of this price inconsistency which is a characteristic of a market in its formative stages.

And finally, in the Deep Mirror Prooflike category, the old concepts have been shattered! The 1900-P is now known to be a supreme rarity in MS-63, MS-64, and MS-65 DMPL. Should one ever appear at a major auction, I’m sure that the price realized would raise some eyebrows.

An old friend once told me that information an opportunity go hand in hand. Certainly, this information about the 1900-P Morgan Dollar suggests several opportunities for those who believe in buying undervalued issues. Happy hunting!

By James U. Blanchard, III

I’ve noticed a subtle shift lately in the different attitudes between the “collector” and “investor” segments of the coin market.  Since I’ve been both a collector and investor for more than 20 years, and a dealer since 1970, I’ve had a chance to see the view from both sides of the fence, and my conclusion is:  the fence is coming down.  (And, it never really needed to be built.)

Investors in the conservative mainstream Wall Street securities have tended to shy away from coins because of the “hobby” connotation.  Likewise, collectors have shied away from the “profit-motive” of investors who don’t “really” appreciate the beauty and satisfaction of collecting classic coinage.

More to the point, collectors have been upset with investor who bid up the prices on selected investment grade coins – that is, they make the hobby more expensive.  (Of course, they also bid up the resale value of existing collections, for which many collectors owe them a debt of gratitude.)

The Emerging Collector/Investor

Which comes first?  The interest in profits or the love of collecting coins?  That’s the question both sides need to consider as we see the emergence of a large group of investor who have become collectors too!  The answer, of course, is that it really doesn’t matter which came first.  If the investment motivation moves a million new buyers into the coin market, and if most of these millions become attracted to coin collecting as a hobby, then both the collecting and investing worlds will be winners.

Each day, hundreds of interested investors call our offices in response to coin promotions in Market Alert newsletter.  I keep in constant touch with our numismatists and brokers concerning the pulse of the market, and I’ve noticed that the consolidation phase of the recent cycle – when coin prices largely moved sideways for 3 years, 1980 to early 1983 – has turned many of our long-term investors into collectors, too.  When the immediate profits didn’t materialize, as they had hoped, they began to enjoy the beauty and history behind their assortment of U.S. and world B.U. crown-size coins.  Then, gradually, they became interested in going to coin shows, subscribing to other coin newsletters, buying books on coin grading and history, etc.

From the collector’s perspective, this new “army” of collector/investors may not have started from the pure motivations of the hobbyist, but I believe the expansion of the market can do nothing but help the hobby by broadening its scope and trading volume nationwide.

A case in point is the Industry Council for Tangible Assets, the new trade group which prominently defends the legal rights of the coin dealers and collectors from unwarranted intrusions by the government regulation and prejudicial taxation.  Without the clout of investors and the investment newsletter community, this organization may never have gotten off the ground.  Coin dealers and hobbyists will be severely affected by legislation unless the collectors and investors are willing to bury their hatchets and fight this government threat together.

Benjamin Franklin’s famous statement upon signing the Declaration of Independence also applies to collectors and investors – “Let us all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately.”  We’ve seen Democrats and Republicans unite effectively against the interests of our hobby.  So it’s imperative, that we also maintain a united front against those who seek to drive the hobby “underground” to avoid unfair taxation.

The Role of Precious Metals in Coin Sales

We all know that Krugerrands, Canadian Maple Leafs, 90% “junk” silver coins, and the new U.S. Gold marketed by J. Aron & Company are decidedly NOT numismatic coins.  As a result, I’ve noticed many collectors ignore the importance of bullion coins and the precious metals in general.  There is a middle ground of possible “détente,” between collector and investor, in the area of semi-numismatic coins.  These coins operate on a “double-play” principle, balancing the bullion content (which investors are usually most interested in) and the numismatic premium for the rarity (which interests collectors as well as investors).

The coin market reacts to the bullion market, but the important difference between the two is that rare coin investments minimize the downside risk inherent in the bullion market.  When silver declined 90%, from $50 to $5 per ounce in just over 2 years, silver dollars dropped only 35%, and those same silver dollars have now exceeded their 1980 market tops!  (By comparison, silver bullion would need to sell for $55 per ounce today, to match the performance of Morgan dollar.)

A second way in which the precious metals markets affects coins sales is the tremendous volume of investing currently “churning” in the precious metals market.  Most coin collectors wound not be aware of the staggering statistic that every ounce of fold mined throughout the world each year is bought and sold 35 times over on the fortunes market before it is ever delivered.  This high “velocity” of investment turnover is unprecedented in the coin market, or any other major market for that matter.

The point is, precious metals investors learn very quickly that pure bullion plays do not satisfy their need for long-term profits and short0term protection from downside corrections.  They buy gold, generally, because of their philosophical belief in the “hard money’ philosophy propounded in literally hundreds of investment advisories.  If gold appears to be in the “doldrums” (within $400-$430 channel since February 28^th), they will look around for a hard money investment with more profit potential, more historical interest, more beauty, and more protection from unfavorable taxation, regulations and market vagaries.

The best answer, of course, is coins.  Specifically, the U.S. silver dollars and world crown-sized coins with semi-numismatic “double-play.”

by: Leonard Albrecht – Authenticator

The 1879-CC Vam 3 “Capped Die” Variety silver dollar is one of the more interesting Morgan Dollar varieties, yet a lack of understanding of it has long caused it to sell at a substantial discount.

In late 1878 or early 1879 a third reverse (7 TF, rounded breast) die was punched with a small mint mark like that used in 1878.  Before the die was used, however, a decision was made to change the style of the mint marks on the Morgan Dollars to that of the virtually discontinued Trade Dollar.  Consequently the die was repunched with the larger CC punch.

Because the larger punch was applied too low, the tops of the small CC’s remained visible atop the larger ones looking like hats or caps, hence the original nickname, “Capped Die.”

The Mint engraver tried to hide the original CC’s by tapping around the mind mark with a blank punch.  Later, after the die had been used for a while, a press operator at the Carson City Mint further damaged the mint mark area to obliterate the extra CC.  This damage to the mint mark area has caused many people to unnecessarily doubt the authenticity of one of the most unusual Morgan Dollar varieties.

There have been hundreds of pages and thousands of disagreements within the silver dollar industry over grading.  I am not going to get involved in that discussion here.  Trying to get every dealer to agree upon a certain grade is next to impossible.  However, if you could get at least 50% of the professional dealers to agree upon grade then possibly you would be able to market this coin for a value close to the consensus grade.  Right?  Maybe.  Let’s look further at the situation.  There are many rules to go by:

1. Find an honest dealer
2. Find a reputable dealer
3. Find a respectable and honest dealer (Tougher than steps 1 & 2)
4. Grade must be consistent to current market conditions
5. Grade must be certified by INCS
6. Grade must be certified by ANACS
7. Grade must be agreed upon by both seller & buyer
8. Grade must be in direct relation to strike (Questionable)
9. Value must be equal to current C.D.N. pricing
10. Value must be equal to Coin World & or Numismatic News Pricing
11. Value must be equal to dealer’s evaluation
12. Value must be equal to seller’s evaluation
13. Value must be equal to current market conditions
14. Value must be equal to correct grading via steps 4 thru 8
15. Seller must agree upon correct funds available
16. Dealer must have enough funds available

(Rules 17 thru 194 will be in my next essay)

Other than the few steps above, selling a coin is a very simple task.

If it seems I jest in this manner, I do not.  This is a serious matter, as it should be.  However, working thru reliable dealers in both the purchasing and selling of your collection and/or investment is in your best interest.  This author recommends that you deal primarily, if not exclusively with dealers associated in either the Professional Numismatist Guild and/or the National Silver Dollar Roundtable.  A list of dealers belonging to these organizations is available through their directors.  Those names and addresses are listed at the end of this article.

A lot has been noted throughout the silver dollar industry about market conditions dictating the value of a coin.  This is probably one of the most misunderstood areas of the coin business.  I’ll try to explain and set some examples for you.  Precious metals do affect our business whether we want to admit it or not.  A good example of this would be a $5,000.00 coin that sold easily last month when silver was say $13.00 per ounce and gold was $435.00 per ounce.  For the convenience of illustrating a situation, let’s say both gold and silver dropped to $10.00 and $380.00 respectively.  The $5,000.00 coin is still bid at the same levels.  It didn’t go down in value as registered by the C.D.N. weekly report.  Gold and silver dropped almost 25-30% in value.  Our specimen coin retained its value.  Correct?  Right!  No, wrong!  Although its value has not decreased, its liquidity and salability has gone down.  There are many complex matters that go along with a dealers business.  His cash flow has suffered, (gone to pot) so has all of his investors.  Now, we take our $5,000.00 coin and because we wish to sell it for whatever reasons that we may have, we can’t.  It’s still bid $5,000.00 but no one wants it.  Now comes step 2 of No.76.  Panic!  No, not yet.  That’s set number 53, let’s go back to step number 2.  Sell it at a modest reduced level that still maintains us a reasonable profit, say $4,995.00.  This isn’t working either, so we go back to step number 3. (Same as step number 2 except at a lower price).  Now we are at a K-Mart “blue light” special price of $4,950.00 Market value seems to be $6.93!  We are getting more and more worried that there is an Edsel for sale in the numismatic industry with a bad transmission and engine.  Somehow, somewhere, a chilling feeling comes over you that you own that Edsel.  This episode really gets thrilling at step number 46.  (This is 7 steps before “panic”.)  This is when your “cost factor” adjusted for interest rates, inflation, air fare, hotel bill, rent-a-car, cab fares, parking, meals, tips, etc…, has come up to $6,942.13.  Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Lone Ranger Rare Coin Company has offered you $2,800.00.  That’s 56% below current C.D.N. bid!  The masked man explains, “With the $2,800.00 that I offered you, I will have to sell this coin for $7500.00 and only make a $557.67 profit. (You wonder if he got his math degree with a Texaco credit card from a Sears correspondence course that had a graduating class of 3 in the year 1902.) He simply explains that with the initial front money of $2,800.00 and with a cost factor, adjusted for interest rates, inflation, air fare, hotel bill, rent-a-car, cab fares, parking, meals, tips, etc….will come up to $6,942.13.  Then if he sells it for $7,500.00 he will realize a profit of $557.67. (It’s now that you realize that he got his math degree at the same place you got yours.)

If you wish to read about the ending to this story, simply send $7,500.00 to this author, along with $285.00 postage and handling, and within 90 days you will receive a letter stating that your response has been delayed until further notice.  No refunds please.  All overpayments will be gladly received with no returns.  Now, if you’re beginning to believe this story, I suggest you quit now and read no further.  It could be dangerous to your health.  Contrary to popular belief the “Yellow Brick Road” does not dead to a greater ANA in the sky.

Now that the joking is over, let’s get serious.  Through the humor, (I guess that’s what we just went through), I was simply trying to illustrate how certain market conditions affect salability of your coins.  Market conditions are not just tied to precious metals.  They are subject to seasonal changes, interest rates, inflation, deflation, recession, the U.S. dollar, influx of new materials in the market place, promotions, etc…The list can include up to and possible fifty different varying conditions.  Keep in mind that the same conditions in reverse can lead to rapid liquidation and higher prices in a hot market.

This brings about grade vs. value.  As it has been stated many times, “The hotter the market, the looser the grading standards,” “The colder the market, the tighter the grading standards.”  I could write books about those two sentences.  I’ll try to explain in one paragraph.  It’s very simple.  In a hot rapid moving market, dealers have hundreds of orders to fill.  They have received funds for regular order or advertised products and are trying to fill those orders.  Time is of the essence.  They will try to find accurately graded coins.  For whatever reasons we wish to use, they can’t find the right coins.  Now they will take a lower graded coin and ship it instead.  (You didn’t think I was going to tell you that they would ship you a higher grade did you?)  This may seem to be a over simplification of the situation.  But, like I said, this is going to be a short article on market conditions and their effect upon the Silver Dollar industry.  Not an encyclopedia!

Now comes the slow market, the same dealer has less orders to fill.  He now needs fifty coins, not 500.  Obviously, he has more time, less money and more serious customers.  Before anyone would take anything.  Now they have been “burnt” with their MS-63 or MS-64 coins that they paid MS-65 price for.  So they want to make darn sure it doesn’t happen again.  It seems only an MS-67 coin will satisfy them now.  There is no MS-67 grade pricing anywhere.  (This includes C.D.N., Coin World, Numismatic News, Coinage, Coins, Etc…)  Therefore, we must bid more for our MS-65 desires.  Makes sense?  Right?

It’s now time to follow the bouncing ball:  In a stable market, we trade at levels equal to MS-60, MS-63, MS-65 and sometimes MS-67 grades of uncirculated Silver Dollars.  (Other coins tend to follow the same behavior patterns)  In a slow market, we must have MS-63 dollars in our rolls, we must have MS-65 dollars, buying and selling at 40/50% of MS-65 bid and we must have MS-67 dollars to bring to MS-65 prices.  (For those critics that I surely have accumulated by now, these are estimates of portions of dealers at different times, given certain circumstances during all financial conditions.  In other words, “clear to partly cloudy with a chance of rain, sleet, or snow.”)

Next step, hot market.  In case you missed it earlier, everything sells.  Your AU-58 sliders sell for MS-60, the MS-60’s make up nice rolls, the MS-63’s sell at levels within 70% MS-65 Bid, the true MS-65’s are selling for 20% above MS-65 “Ask” and the elusive and accurately graded MS-67 silver dollars are bring 2 to 4 times MS-65 bid at auction.  Oh, for the good ole’ days again.

I’m sorry that this essay seems to have no clear cut direction.  But, neither does the real world and it’s constantly changing markets.  If it were not complex, we would simply grade a coin, look up it’s wholesale or retail value and make a transaction.  This article by no way intends to intimidate either the collector or the investor.  It simply wishes to unveil some of the reasons behind the scenes as to why market conditions dictate the value of their coins.  It is as simple as the ole’ “Supply and Demand” theory.  In this industry, possibly more than any other, demand has an edge over supply.  Limited supply initially creates demand.  However, the most popular coins (demand) bring the highest values.  I don’t dwell in this controversial area too long, however, I will make an illustration.  A common date MS-65 silver dollar sells for well over $100.00 and a MS-65 Lincoln penny in the same “decade” would sell for around $5.00 The silver dollar also would probably have a larger mintage (including melt-down estimates) than the Lincoln penny.  (By the way, dates my choice and for precise and detailed information, simply send $375.00 to me immediately.  Hurry, supplies limited).

Back to serious.  The reason for this comparison is that the U.S. Silver Dollar is the most popular coin, (highest demand) in the world.

I will try to summarize what you “think” you read.  As far as I’m concerned, Richard Nixon only said one thing that I would agree with.  That was: “I believe you heard what I said.  However, I don’t believe what you heard is what I said.”  I’m not even sure that I understand that, but it sounded good.  Anyway, whatever..?

In summary, you have only two ways in which to protect yourself from making a bad transaction.  One is become an expert in grading, purchasing, selling and keeping active in the “marketplace.”  The other is find a reliable and honest dealer to handle all of these numismatic needs for you.  Again, I recommend that you find a dealer that is either a member of the P.N.G. and/or the N.S.D.R.  Next is to buy accurately graded silver dollars.  Be careful of changing conditions and try not to sell in negative markets.  (Easier said than done).  Try not to invest funds that you will need in the next four to seven years.  Remember, if you “have to sell,” chances are you won’t receive a fair return on your investment.  The silver dollar is the “most”  popular coin in the world and is always in constant demand.  And demand generates sales.  Market conditions are related to many things, a few of these were depression (obvious), recession, inflation, deflation, the U.S. dollar, interest rates, new hoards coming onto the marketplace, etc….

And finally, one of the most important things to remember, in a hot market, grading is variable and almost anything sells.  The slow market creates very strict grading and low liquidity.  Remember, buy low, sell high.  Easy.  Right?  I hope you are enlightened and educated somewhat more than you were before you started reading this article.  Good luck in your numismatic adventures.  Last, but certainly not least, if we take into consideration all percentages, averages, demands, popularity, liquidity, availability, variety, and their return on initial investments, “Silver Dollars Are Your Best Investment Value.” (In any market.)

John W. Highfill

President and Founder

c/o Oklahoma Federated Gold and

Numismatics, Inc.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

Professional Numismatists Guild

Paul Koppenhaver – Executive Director

P.O. Box 430

Van Nuys, California 91408

National Silver Dollar Roundtable

Leroy Van Allen – Secretary

P.O. Box 44229

Washington, D.C. 20026-0229